In the first half of 2026, China's TDI export data performed impressively. According to customs statistics, from January to June, China's cumulative TDI exports reached 332,100 tons, an increase of approximately 64,800 tons compared to the 267,300 tons exported in the same period of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.2%. Among these, the single-month export volume in June hit 56,600 tons, showing a month-on-month growth of 22.5% and a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The total export volume for the first half of the year was 152 times the import volume, highlighting the prominent outward-oriented nature of the TDI industry. In terms of export destinations, Brazil ranked first with approximately 29,600 tons, followed closely by Vietnam, Belgium, India, and Indonesia. The top ten markets collectively accounted for about 54.7% of the total exports, indicating a relatively dispersed export region with low dependence on any single market.
The factors contributing to the significant growth in exports during the first half of the year include the following: First, the tense international geopolitical situation imposed dual pressures on energy costs and logistics in overseas regions, enabling China's TDI to gain export substitution benefits through stable supply guarantees and cost advantages. Second, the Indian government reduced import tariffs on certain chemicals (including TDI and polyether polyols) to zero from April 2 to June 30, accelerating the rapid flow of goods into India, Vietnam, and the Middle East. Third, the single-month export volume in April reached 74,600 tons, setting a new record high, which was directly linked to the rush-buying trend triggered by the Middle East conflict at that time. The surge in exports effectively alleviated domestic supply surpluses and inventory pressures, providing strong support for TDI market performance in the first half of the year.
The maintenance of Wanhua Hungary will have a significant impact on the import and export market in the second half of the year. The contraction of overseas supply is expected to enhance the substitution effect of exports. The maintenance of the Hungarian facility directly reduces the supply of TDI in Europe, which is already constrained by high energy costs leading to insufficient operating rates. Against the backdrop of an expanding overseas supply gap, the export substitution advantage of Chinese TDI will be further highlighted. Despite a significant increase in exports and some overdrawn demand in the first half of the year, the Sadara and Iranian facilities in the Middle East have strong short-term uncertainties, and European production capacity is limited. China's TDI exports will still maintain strong resilience. The Southeast Asian market is in a low season with low import enthusiasm, and the supply focus may shift towards domestic trade. As Southeast Asian users gradually start stocking up in the future, it is expected that there may still be a possibility of increased export volume in the future.
Overall, although the export volume in the second half of the year is difficult to replicate the explosive growth in April, the monthly performance will be more balanced. The procurement timeline for the overseas market is expected to be in the first half of August, while for the European and American markets it will be in the first half of September. The total export volume for the whole year is expected to continue to grow on the basis of 2025, but the growth rate may slow down.
(Note: All price data and indices in the article are quoted from the June 2026 market monitoring report of Buyi Plastics Research Institute. If you need to subscribe, Email：zhangq@ibuychem.com.)